气象因子及其交互作用对宁夏南部地区流感的影响分析-现代医学

气象因子及其交互作用对宁夏南部地区流感的影响分析

单位：1. 中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室, 宁夏银川 750000;
2. 宁夏回族自治区气象服务中心, 宁夏银川 750000;
3. 宁夏回族自治区疾病预防控制中心, 宁夏银川 750000

分类号：R122.2;R181.3

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2026·54·第一期（84-91）

摘要：

目的：探究气象因子对宁夏南部地区流感发病的影响效应。方法：收集固原市2005至2021年逐日流感样病例数和同期气象资料，采用相关分析和广义相加模型(GAM)综合分析气象因子及其交互作用对流感样病例数的影响效应。结果：固原市流感的高发期1~3月及11~12月，0~6岁的学龄前儿童为主要易感人群；0~7 d气象因子对流感样病例数有滞后性。流感样病例数与日平均气压呈负相关，与其余气象因子呈正相关。基于单影响因子的GAM模型拟合中，日平均气温、日平均气压、日平均相对湿度、日平均风速显著影响流感样病例数(P<0.001)，随着气压的升高、气温下降，流感发病人数呈增多趋势。交互模型也进一步证实流感发病受多种气象因子共同影响，结合三维可视化图形发现气温是影响流感发病的主导气象因子，与风速存在协同效应；当日平均气温低于8.0 ℃时，随着气温下降，发病风险增大，在-8.0 ℃左右时，流感发病风险最大。结论：固原市流感发生受多种气象因子的影响，但气温是主导因子，在低温、低风速的气象条件下，需做好流感的预防控制工作。

Objective: To explore the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of influenza in southern Ningxia. Methods: Daily influenza-like illness cases and concurrent meteorological data in Guyuan city from 2005 to 2021 were collected. Correlation analysis and generalized additive models(GAM) were combined to comprehensively analyze the effects of meteorological factors and their interactions on the number of influenza-like illness cases. Results: The peak incidence periods of influenza in Guyuan city were from January to March and November to December, with preschool children aged 0-6 years being the main susceptible population. Meteorological factors from 0-7 days have a lag effect on the number of influenza-like illness cases. The number of influenza-like illness cases was negatively correlated with daily mean atmospheric pressure, while showing positive correlations with other meteorological factors. In the GAM model fitting based on single influencing factors, daily mean temperature, daily mean atmospheric pressure, mean relative humidity, and mean wind speed significantly affected the number of influenza-like illness cases(P<0.001). The number of influenza cases tended to increase with the rise of atmospheric pressure and the drop of temperature. The interaction model further confirmed that influenza incidence was jointly affected by multiple meteorological factors. Combined with three-dimensional visualization graphs, it was found that temperature was the dominant meteorological factor affecting influenza incidence and had a synergistic effect with wind speed. When the daily mean temperature was lower than 8.0 ℃, the risk of illness increased with the decrease of temperature, and the risk of influenza was the highest when the temperature was around -8.0 ℃. Conclusion: Influenza occurrence in Guyuan city is influenced by multiple meteorological factors, among which temperature is the dominant one. Under meteorological conditions of low temperature and low wind speed, it is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of influenza.

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