唐山市大气污染物对人群超额死亡风险的评估-现代医学

唐山市大气污染物对人群超额死亡风险的评估

单位：1. 唐山市疾病预防控制中心环境卫生监测与评价所, 河北唐山 063000;
2. 丰南区疾病预防控制中心传染病防治科, 河北唐山 063300

分类号：R122.2

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·53·第十一期（1739-1744）

摘要：

目的：评估唐山市大气污染物对人群造成的超额死亡风险。方法：收集唐山市2020—2022年人群死亡、气象、大气污染物等资料，基于广义相加模型进行时间序列分析和大气污染物对人群的超额死亡风险分析。结果： 2020—2022年间，唐山市的大气PM_2.5、PM₁₀、O₃的浓度与市民的日均死亡人数呈正相关，其中PM_2.5、PM₁₀、O₃浓度每升高10 μg·m^-3，超额危险度分别上升0.76%(RR=1.008，95%CI 1.002~1.014)、0.96%(RR=1.010，95%CI 1.004~1.015)、1.60%(RR=1.016，95%CI 1.007~1.025)，PM₁₀、O₃的影响显示出滞后效应。2020—2022年PM_2.5、PM₁₀、O₃污染导致的超额死亡人数分别为113.08、165.57、196.13人，PM_2.5的超额死亡人数逐年降低，PM_2.5、PM₁₀超额死亡人数呈现冬季最高夏季最低的季节性规律，采暖期的超额死亡人数远高于非采暖期，而O₃的超额死亡人数夏季高于冬季，并且非采暖期的超额死亡人数高于采暖期。结论：唐山市的大气污染物提高了人群的超额死亡风险，本研究为相关行政部门制定污染防治相关的政策提供了数据支持。

Objective: To evaluate the excess mortality risk of people exposed to air pollutants in Tangshan City. Methods: The data on population mortality, meteorology and air pollutants in Tangshan City from 2020 to 2022 were collected. Time series analysis and an assessment of the excess mortality risk of people exposed to air pollutants were performed using generalized additive model. Results: From 2020 to 2022, the concentrations of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, O₃ in Tangshan City were positively associated with the daily average mortality. Each 10 μg·m^-3 increase in the concentrations of PM_2.5, PM₁₀ and O₃ corresponded to an excess mortality risk of 0.76% RR=1.008, 95%CI 1.002-1.014), 0.96%(RR=1.010,95%CI 1.004-1.015) and 1.60%(RR=1.016, 95%CI 1.007-1.025), respectively. The effects of PM₁₀ and O₃ showed lag effects. From 2020 to 2022, there were 113.08, 165.57 and 196.13 excess deaths due to PM_2.5, PM₁₀ and O₃, respectively. The excess deaths due to PM_2.5 decreased year by year. The excess deaths due to PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ were the highest in winter and the lowest in summer. The excess deaths due to PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ during the heating period were much higher than those during the non-heating period. Conversely, the excess deaths associated with O₃ were higher in summer than in winter and higher during the non-heating period than during the heating period. Conclusion: Air pollutants in Tangshan City are associated with excess mortality risk, providing data-based evidence for relevant administrative departments in formulating air pollution prevention and control policies.

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