Objective: To investigate the influencing factors of surgical site infection(SSI) following lumbar disc herniation(LDH) surgery in elderly patients. Methods: 48 elderly LDH patients with postoperative SSI from February 2020 to August 2024 were retrospectively selected as SSI group, and 106 elderly LDH patients without postoperative infection were selected as uninfected group during the same period. Clinical data such as age, body mass index(BMI), preoperative albumin(Alb), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio(NLR) on the 1st day after surgery, and systemic immune-inflammation index(SII) on the 1st day after surgery were collected in elderly LDH patients. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to analyze the influencing factors of postoperative SSI in elderly LDH patients, and a nomogram prediction model was constructed to predict the risk of postoperative SSI in elderly LDH patients. Calibration curve and receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve were drawn to evaluate the calibration degree and prediction efficiency of the nomogram prediction model. Results: The levels of age, BMI, the prevalence rate of diabetes, intraoperative blood loss, NLR and SII at the 1st day after surgery in SSI group were higher than those in uninfected group, the level of Alb before surgery was lower than that in uninfected group, and the operative time was longer than that in uninfected group(P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that high BMI(OR=1.518, 95%CI 1.196-1.928), diabetes(OR=3.272, 95%CI 1.468-7.294), long operation time(OR=1.033, 95%CI 1.012-1.054), high NLR on the first day after surgery(OR=3.334, 95%CI 1.689-6.581), high SII on the first day after surgery(OR=1.009, 95%CI 1.005-1.013) were risk factors for postoperative SSI in elderly LDH patients(P<0.05). High preoperative Alb(OR=0.867, 95%CI 0.786-0.957) was a protective factor for postoperative SSI in elderly LDH patients(P<0.05).H-L test found that the nomogram prediction model built by the above factors had a good calibration degree, and ROC curve showed that the area under the curve(AUC) of the model was 0.953, the sensitivity was 79.17%, the specificity was 96.22%, and the prediction efficiency was good. Conclusion: BMI, diabetes mellitus, Alb before surgery, time of operation, NLR on the first day after surgery, and SII on the first day after surgery can all affect the occurrence of postoperative SSI in elderly LDH patients. The prediction model based on this nomogram has good consistency and predictive value, and can provide a basis for the formulation of clinical intervention strategies. |
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