目的：分析孤立性骨浆细胞瘤(SBP)患者的临床特征、总生存(OS)相关预后因素，并建立及验证SBP患者OS预后列线图。方法：从SEER 数据库中收集2000年至2019年期间确诊的 SBP患者数据，分析年龄调整发病率及趋势变化。总体按2000—2010年和2011—2019年分为两部分，第一部分按7：3随机分割为建模组和内部验证组进行模型开发和内部验证，第二部分用作时间外部验证。采用Cox多因素回归分析确定SBP患者OS独立相关的预后因素，构建预后列线图。绘制时间依赖受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线和校准曲线对模型进行评估。结果：共纳入4 079 例SBP患者。删失组45~64岁的患者占51.4%，男性占62.8%，白种人占79.6%，已婚占68.8%。死亡组65~79岁患者占43.3%，男性占60.3%，白种人占82.0%，已婚占61.4%。两组最常见的原发部位为椎体，均有超过半数患者接受了放疗，化疗患者比例均不足1/4。2000—2019年间，总体患者年龄调整发病率为0.2/100万~0.3/100万，女性0.1/100万~0.2/100万，男性0.2/100万~0.4/100万。最终确定年龄(45~64岁/65~79岁/≥80岁)、美洲印第安人/阿拉斯加原住民、诊断时的婚姻状况-其他、非放疗为OS独立相关的预后因素(P<0.05)。基于上述独立相关变量构建预后预测模型并绘制列线图。建模、内部验证及时间外部验证组1、3、5年OS预后的ROC曲线下面积(AUC)均>0.7，提示该模型具有较好的区分度。1、3、5年OS预后的校准曲线显示，3组预测与实际生存率之间具有较好的一致性。结论：基于 SEER 数据库建立并验证了 SBP 患者的OS预后列线图，可以帮助临床医生识别预后不良的风险患者，并预测患者1、3、5年OS率。

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