Objective: To analyze and predict the incidence of adverse reactions following immunization(AEFI) to vaccination in Niushan Street, Donghai County from 2017 to 2022, and to provide a basis for the safe use of vaccines.Methods: Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the AEFI data of Niushan Street in Donghai County from 2017 to 2022 by R 3.6.2 software. A seasonal difference autoregressive moving average model(SARIMA) was constructed based on the number of AEFI from January 2017 to April 2022, and the performance of the model was validated through the number of AEFI from May to December 2022. Results: From 2017 to 2022, a total of 313 038 doses of various vaccines were administered in Niushan Street, including 284 815 doses of expanded program on immunization vaccines and 28 223 doses of non-immunization expanded program vaccines. There was a statistically significant difference in the incidence rate of AEFI reports among different years(χ2=27.837, P=0.001). There were 280 cases of AEFI, in which 262 cases were mild reactions, 18 cases were abnormal reactions, and 280 cases were not hospitalized, all of which were cured. The SARIMA model fitted well to the number of AEFI cases in Niushan Street in Donghai County, the final model parameters were SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1) 12, with AIC value of 300.39 and BIC value of 310.05, the root mean square error(RMSE) between the predicted and true values was 5.03, indicating the reliability of the model's prediction results.Conclusion: AEFI monitoring data shows that the currently used immunization planning vaccines and non-immunization planning vaccines are safe. The SARIMA model established can predict the incidence trend and drection of AEFI in Niushan Street. |
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