1990—2019年中国中耳炎发病和疾病负担分析-现代医学

1990—2019年中国中耳炎发病和疾病负担分析

单位：南华大学附属娄底医院耳鼻咽喉头颈肿瘤外科, 湖南娄底 417000

分类号：R181

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·51·第九期（1312-1319）

摘要：

目的：了解1990—2019年中国中耳炎发病和疾病负担情况，以充分评估减少中耳炎疾病、社会和经济负担的相关干预措施的必要性。方法：利用2019年全球疾病负担数据库，分析不同性别及年龄组中耳炎的发病率及伤残调整寿命年(DALY)，并采用Joinpoint线性回归模型分析中耳炎疾病负担的变化趋势。利用年龄-时期-队列模型从年龄、时期、出生队列3个维度对中耳炎发病率进行分析。构建贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列分析(BAPC)模型对2020—2035年中国中耳炎的发病情况进行预测。结果：1990—2019年中国中耳炎发病率减少32.39%，且男性发病率高于女性，但标化发病率低于女性，<5岁组发病人数占比最高。DALY率减少40.40%，1990—2019年中国中耳炎的标化DALY率呈逐年降低趋势，年度变化百分比(AAPC)为-1.234%。年龄效应提示1990—2019年中国中耳炎全人群发病的相对危险度随年龄增长逐渐下降，其中<5岁组发病的相对危险度最高，分性别的年龄效应存在差异。时期效应提示全人群发病效应系数呈下降趋势。队列效应提示全人群发病效应系数随出生年份的后移呈升高趋势。在 2020—2035年间，中国中耳炎标化发病率呈下降趋势。与全球其他国家相比，中国标化DALY率处于较高水平。结论：1990—2019年中国中耳炎发病呈降低趋势，但与全球其他国家相比，疾病负担仍处于较高水平，仍需采取必要的干预措施降低其疾病负担。

Objective: To understand the incidence and burden of otitis media in China from 1990 to 2019 to fully assess the need for interventions to reduce their disease, social and economic burden. Methods: The incidence and disability adjusted life years(DALY) and the trend of the disease burden of otitis media were analyzed by the Joinpoint linear regression model with Global Disease Burden Database,2019. The age-period-cohort model was analyzed from three dimensions: age, period and birth cohort. A Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis(BAPC) model was constructed to predict the incidence of otitis media in China from 2020 to 2035. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the incidence of otitis media in China decreased by 32.39%, and the incidence of men was higher than that of women, but the standardized incidence was lower than that of women, and the age group of <5 years had the highest proportion.The DALY rate decreased by 40.40%, and that in China from 1990 to 2019 decreased year by year, with average annual percent change(AAPC) of -1.234%.The age effect suggested that the relative risk of otitis media in China from 1990 to 2019 gradually decreased with increasing age, among which the age group of <5 years had the highest relative risk of onset, with different age effect by sex.The period effect suggested that the incidence effect coefficient of the whole population was decreasing. The cohort effect suggested that the trend of the incidence effect coefficient increased with the birth year.From 2020 to 2035, the incidence of otitis media decreased in China.Compared with other countries in the world, the standard DALY rate is at a high level.Conclusion: From 1990 to 2019, the incidence of otitis media in China was decreasing, but compared with other countries in the world, the disease burden is still at a high level.It is still necessary to take measures to decrease the disease burden of otitis media.

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