Objective: To analyze the long-term trend of mortality risk of ischemic heart disease(IHD) attributable to high body mass index(BMI) in China and India from 1990 to 2019, and provide scientific suggestions for the prevention and control of IHD. Methods:Based on the global burden of disease 2019, the R software-based age-period-cohort(APC) model analysis was used to evaluate the age, period, and cohort effects of mortality risk of IHD attributable to high BMI. Results:From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate of IHD attributable to high BMI in China and India showed an increasing trend. The APC model showed that the longitudinal age curve of the mortality rate of IHD attributable to high BMI in both countries from 1990 to 2019 had a trend of increasing with age, and the peak mortality rate in China was 80-84 years old(140.84/100 000 and 132.16/100 000 for male and female, respectively, and the peak mortality rate in India was 75-79 years old(187.29/100 000, 157.34/100 000 for male and female, respectively. Over time, the risk of death increased in China and India, with relative risk(RR) for Chinese male increasing from 0.88 to 1.93, 0.92 to 1.11 in Chinese female, 0.73 to 1.47 in Indian male, and 0.76 to 1.41 in Indian female. With the exception of Chinese female, the later the risk of death in the birth cohort was greater, with RR increasing from 0.27 to 4.06 in Chinese male, 0.27 to 2.31 in Indian male, and 0.33 to 2.12 in Indian female. Conclusion: Due to the effects of age, period and cohort, the mortality of IHD attributable to high BMI in China and India have been increasing, and it is necessary to strengthen the weight control of patients with IHD and raise the health awareness of the population through health education in order to reduce the mortality burden caused by IHD. |
[1] WANG T,MA Y,LI R,et al.Trends of ischemic heart disease mortality attributable to household air pollution during 1990—2019 in China and India:an age-period-cohort analysis[J].Environ Sci Pollut Res Int,2022,29(58):87478-87489.
[2] KHAN M A,HASHIM M J,MUSTAFA H,et al.Global epidemiology of ischemic heart disease:results from the global burden of disease study[J].Cureus,2020,12(7):e9349.
[3] World Health Organization.WHO methods and data sources for country-level causes of death 2000-2019 [R/OL].2020.https://www.who.int/data.
[4] 姜申易,于晓松.2004—2015年中国循环系统疾病死亡谱特征分析[J].中国全科医学,2022,25(7):815-821.
[5] WANG W,HU M,LIU H,et al.Global burden of disease study 2019 suggests that metabolic risk factors are the leading drivers of the burden of ischemic heart disease[J].Cell Metab,2021,33(10):1943-1956.e1942.
[6] WANG Z Q,ZHANG L,ZHENG H,et al.Burden and trend of ischemic heart disease and colorectal cancer attributable to a diet low in fiber in China,1990—2017:findings from the global burden of disease study 2017[J].Eur J Nutr,2021,60(7):3819-3827.
[7] FU S H,GASPARRINI A,RODRIGUEZ P S,et al.Mortality attributable to hot and cold ambient temperatures in India:a nationally representative case-crossover study[J].PLoS Med,2018,15(7):e1002619.
[8] GBD 2019 Cancer Risk Factors Collaborators.Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories,1990—2019:a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019[J].Lancet,2020,396(10258):1223-1249.
[9] GBD 2019 Cancer Risk Factors Collaborators.The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors,2010-19:a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019[J].Lancet,2022,400(10352):563-591.
[10] YANG L K C.Age-period-cohort analysis:new models,methods,and empirical applications[M].Boca Raton:CRC Press,2013.
[11] WANG P,XU C,YU C.Age-period-cohort analysis on the cancer mortality in rural China:1990—2010[J].Int J Equity Health,2014,13:1.
[12] BEARD J R,OFFICER A,DE CARVALHO I A,et al.The world report on ageing and health:a policy framework for healthy ageing[J].Lancet,2016,387(10033):2145-2154.
[13] BARQUERA S,PEDROZA-TOBÍAS A,MEDINA C,et al.Global overview of the epidemiology of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease[J].Arch Med Res,2015,46(5):328-338.
[14] WANG J C,BENNETT M.Aging and atherosclerosis:mechanisms,functional consequences,and potential therapeutics for cellular senescence[J].Circ Res,2012,111(2):245-259.
[15] 白剑峰.居民人均预期寿命提至78.2岁[N].人民日报,2022-07-13(013).
[16] YADAV S,YADAV P K,YADAV N.Impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy at birth in India:a decomposition analysis[J].BMC Public Health,2021,21(1):1906.
[17] FOREMAN K J,MARQUEZ N,DOLGERT A,et al.Forecasting life expectancy,years of life lost,and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death:reference and alternative scenarios for 2016-40 for 195 countries and territories[J].Lancet,2018,392(10159):2052-2090.
[18] NOWBAR A N,GITTO M,HOWARD J P,et al.Mortality from ischemic heart disease[J].Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes,2019,12(6):e005375.
[19] WU Y,BENJAMIN E J,MACMAHON S.Prevention and control of cardiovascular disease in the rapidly changing economy of China[J].Circulation,2016,133(24):2545-2560.
[20] ZOU Z,CINI K,DONG B,et al.Time trends in cardiovascular disease mortality across the BRICS:an age-period-cohort analysis of key nations with emerging economies using the global burden of disease study 2017[J].Circulation,2020,141(10):790-799.
[21] MALVIA S,BAGADI S A,DUBEY U S,et al.Epidemiology of breast cancer in Indian women[J].Asia Pac J Clin Oncol,2017,13(4):289-295.
[22] GBD 2019 Cancer Risk Factors Collaborators.Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014:a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants[J].Lancet,2016,387(10026):1377-1396.
[23] PAN X F,WANG L,PAN A.Epidemiology and determinants of obesity in China[J].Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol,2021,9(6):373-392.
[24] RAI R K,KUMAR C,SINGH L,et al.Rising burden of overweight and obesity among Indian adults:empirical insights for public health preparedness[J].J Biosoc Sci,2021,53(5):709-723.
[25] JAHANGIR E,DE SCHUTTER A,LAVIE C J.The relationship between obesity and coronary artery disease[J].Transl Res,2014,164(4):336-344.
[26] ZHANG G,YU C,ZHOU M,et al.Burden of ischaemic heart disease and attributable risk factors in china from 1990 to 2015:findings from the global burden of disease 2015 study[J].BMC Cardiovasc Disord,2018,18(1):18.
[27] REGITZ-ZAGROSEK V,OERTELT-PRIGIONE S,PRESCOTT E,et al.Gender in cardiovascular diseases:impact on clinical manifestations,management,and outcomes[J].Eur Heart J,2016,37(1):24-34.
[28] SALEHI N,JANJANI P,TADBIRI H,et al.Effect of cigarette smoking on coronary arteries and pattern and severity of coronary artery disease:a review[J].J Int Med Res,2021,49(12):3000605211059893.
[29] 田园,杨淞淳,余灿清,等.中国成年人中心性肥胖与缺血性心脏病发病风险的前瞻性研究[J].中华流行病学杂志,2018,39(9):1172-1178.
[30] ZHANG M,YANG L,WANG L,et al.Trends in smoking prevalence in urban and rural China,2007 to 2018:findings from 5 consecutive nationally representative cross-sectional surveys[J].PLoS Med,2022,19(8):e1004064. |