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支持向量机和Logistic回归模型预测重症手足口病的价值
作者:郑珊  冯慧芬  封爽  徐晶  杨静 
单位:郑州大学第五附属医院 消化内科, 河南 郑州 450052
关键词:重症手足口病 支持向量机 预测 
分类号:R512.5
出版年·卷·期(页码):2022·50·第九期(1157-1162)
摘要:

目的:分别构建支持向量机和Logistic回归模型对重症手足口病(HFMD)进行预测,并分析重症HFMD的危险因素。方法:共纳入2018年12月至2019年12月在河南省某医院诊治的HFMD患儿921例,用统计学方法分别构建支持向量机、Logistic回归模型识别重症HFMD的危险因素,采用重合矩阵表评估对比两模型的预测价值。结果:当使用30%的数据进行验证时,支持向量机模型的曲线下面积为0.938、敏感度85.11%、特异度89.96%、阳性预测值83.8%、阴性预测值93.3%、准确率91.67%,位于前5位的变量是:C反应蛋白、惊颤、肢体抖动、白细胞和EV71抗体阴性。Logistic回归模型曲线下面积为0.854、敏感度82.98%、特异度84.28%、阳性预测值82.9%、阴性预测值92.5%、准确率89.13%。位于前5位的变量是:最高温度、住院时间、白细胞、C反应蛋白和年龄。结论:支持向量机和Logistic回归模型均能较好地预测重症HFMD,但支持向量机模型的综合预测价值更高。新增EV71抗体阴性是影响重症HFMD的独立危险因素,提示当前重症HFMD的病原学特征出现显著变化,除继续关注低龄患儿的神经系统症状、体温及白细胞水平的异常变动外,临床中应警惕非EV71肠道病毒感染的HFMD患儿的病情进展。

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