Objective: To construct a risk prediction scoring model for non exclusive breastfeeding in two months after delivery,and verify the prediction efficiency of the model.Methods: 961 parturients in the 909 Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force and 426 parturients in Fujian Maternal and Child Health Hospital from July 2019 to June 2021 were investigated by questionnaire and followed up.The parturients in the 909 Hospital of Joint Logistics Support Force were randomly divided into modeling group (752 cases) and validation group (209 cases).The influencing factors of non exclusive breastfeeding in two months after delivery were screened by binary logistic regression analysis,the risk prediction model was constructed,and the prediction ability of the model was verified in three levels.Results: Age ≥ 30 years,partner support breastfeeding influence scale (PBIS)<60,multiple births,not participating in pregnancy health education,breastfeeding self-efficacy scale (BSES) score <105,no skin contact and breastfeeding within 1 hour after delivery,abnormal nipple,chapped nipple,mastitis and neonatal jaundice were independent influencing factors of non exclusive breastfeeding in two months after delivery,with values of 1,2,7,2,2,2,13,3,2 and 2,respectively.The area under the curve (AUC) of the model group was 0.755(0.717-0.793),and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test result was χ2=3.854,P=0.216.The AUC of the model in validation group of our hospital was 0.764(0.693-0.834),and the H-L test result was χ2=4.302, P=0.266.The AUC of the model in external validation group was 0.720(0.670-0.769),and the H-L test result was χ2 =5.302,P=0.102.The risk of non exclusive breastfeeding within 2 months postpartum was stratified.0-4 points were low risk of non exclusive breastfeeding,5-13 points were medium risk of non exclusive breastfeeding,and ≥ 14 points were high risk of non exclusive breastfeeding.Conclusion: The risk prediction score model of postpartum non exclusive breastfeeding in two months after delivery has good discrimination and calibration,which is convenient for clinical prediction of maternal feeding mode,and provided relevant guidance and intervention in time. |
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