Objective:To analyze the short-term risk factors of early rheumatoid arthritis recurrence, to construct a nomogram prediction model and to evaluate its value. Methods:A total of 289 patients with early rheumatoid arthritis treated in our hospital were selected as study subjects and their clinical data were collected. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors that affected the short-term recurrence of patients with early rheumatoid arthritis. Based on the results, R software was used to construct a nomogram prediction model, and the H-L fit test and the area under the receiver operator characteristic curves(ROC) were used to evaluate the accuracy and discrimination of the model. Results:All the subjects were followed up for one year, and the recurrence was found in 73 cases, accounting for 25.26%. Univariate analysis showed that cyclic citrullinated peptide(CCP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate(ESR), osteoprotegerin(OPG), receptor activator of nuclear factor κB ligand(RANKL), matrix metallopeptidase 9(MMP9) levels and total synovitis score were the risk factors affecting the short-term recurrence(P<0.05), but the gender, age, body mass index, height, course of disease, C-reactive protein(CRP), rheumatoid factor(RF) level and visual analogue scale(VAS) score were not related to the short-term recurrence(P>0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed based on the results of univariate analysis, and the results showed that high-level of CCP, MMP9 and high total synovitis score were independent risk factors of short-term recurrence(P<0.05). Based on the results of multivariate analysis, the R software was used to construct a nomogram prediction model for the short-term recurrence of early rheumatoid arthritis, and the H-L fit test and the area under the ROC curve were used for verification. The results showed that the H-L fit test calibration curve was in coincidence with the actual curve(χ2=3.123, P=0.214). The area under the ROC curve was 0.928, and the specificity and the sensitivity were 71.3 and 97.3 respectively, indicating that the model had a high degree of discrimination. Conclusion:The high levels of CCP, MMP9 and high total synovitis score are independent risk factors affecting the short-term recurrence of early rheumatoid arthritis. The constructed nomogram prediction model for the short-term recurrence of early rheumatoid arthritis has good discrimination accuracy, and can be used to clinically predict the short-term risk of early rheumatoid arthritis recurrence.
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