Objective: To analyze the impact of basic data on the prognosis of minimally invasive neuroendoscopic surgery in elderly patients with moderate thalamic hemorrhage, and establish a nomogram model for predicting the prognosis.Methods: 320 elderly patients with moderate thalamic hemorrhage diagnosed and treated in our hospital from October 2017 to January 2019 were included as the model group. In addition, 125 elderly patients with moderate thalamic hemorrhage who were diagnosed and treated from February 2019 to September 2020 were included as the test group. The basic data of patients with different prognosis in the model group were compared at the time of admission, and the multivariate Logistic regression model was used to analyze the factors affecting the prognosis of patients. The nomogram model of the prognosis of elderly patients with moderate thalamic hemorrhage was established and verified by R software. The receive operatine characteristic(ROC) curve was used to analyze the effectiveness of the model to predict the prognosis of the model group and the test group.Results: The model group was followed up for 1 month, and the prognosis was good in 262 cases(83.97%). The glasgow coma score(GCS) score and blood loss on admission of the good prognosis group were significantly lower than those of the poor prognosis group. There were statistically significant differences in the location, type and breakage of thalamic hemorrhage between the two groups(P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that GCS score, bleeding volume, thalamic location, classification, and ventricle hemorrhage involvement were all risk factors affecting the prognosis(P<0.05). The nomogram model predicted that the C-index of the model group and the test group were 0.836 and 0.813, respectively, the area under the curve(AUC) of the model group was 0.812(95% CI 0.690~0.935), and the AUC of the test group was 0.808(95% CI 0.647~0.959). Conclusion: GCS score, bleeding volume, thalamic hemorrhage location, type, and ventricle involved in hemorrhage upon admission are all risk factors for poor prognosis in elderly patients with moderate thalamic hemorrhage after neuroendoscopic minimally invasive surgery. The nomogram model established by these indicators has good predicting value. |
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