深圳市宝安区人群结肠癌肿瘤发生风险评分系统的建立及其对结肠癌筛查效能的验证-现代医学

深圳市宝安区人群结肠癌肿瘤发生风险评分系统的建立及其对结肠癌筛查效能的验证

单位：深圳市宝安区中心医院消化内科, 广东深圳 518102

分类号：R735.3

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2017·36·第五期（685-688）

摘要：

目的：建立深圳市宝安区人群结肠癌肿瘤发生风险评分系统，并对该系统结肠癌筛查效能进行验证。方法：收集922例行结肠镜检查人群的临床资料，并采用Logistic多元回归分析法建立结肠癌发生风险预测模型，建立结肠癌肿瘤发生风险评分系统，内部人群验证该系统结肠癌筛查效能。结果：研究建立的评分系统由性别、年龄、体质量指数、排便频率、吸烟、饮酒6个变量组成，分值范围0～8分。该系统对结肠癌预测的一致性和鉴别能力良好，以2.5分为筛查临界值时该系统的敏感度、特异度、准确性、阳性预测值和阴性预测值分别为94.77%、94.64%、94.69%、89.78%和97.33%。结论：本研究建立的深圳市宝安区人群结肠癌肿瘤发生风险评分系统对结肠癌筛查效能良好。

Objective: To set up the Shenzhen Bao'an District colon cancer risk score system, and validate it's colon cancer screening efficiency. Methods: Clinical data of 922 caseswho underwent colonoscopy were collected, Logistic multivariate regression analysis method was adopted to establish the colon cancer risk prediction model, colon cancer risk score system was established, and internal crowd was applied in verifying its colon cancer screening efficiency.Results: Established colon cancer risk prediction system in this research including gender, age, body mass index,defecate frequency,smoking and drinking six variables, the total score was 0 to 8 points.The ability to predict consistency and identify colon cancer of the system was good,and the sensitivity,specific,accuracy,positive predictive value and negative predictive value were respectively 94.77%, 94.64%, 94.69%, 89.78% and 97.33% with 2.5 as the screening cut value.Conclusion: Shenzhen Bao'an District colon cancer risk score system established in this study has good colon cancer screening efficiency.

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